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Top > Pandemic Preparedness > Avian Flu Update - 3/10/06

POSTED: March 10, 2006


Perelandra Health Watch Bulletin
AVIAN FLU UPDATE

by Machaelle Wright
Perelandra, Center for Nature Research

If good luck happens when preparation meets opportunity,
bad luck is what happens when lack of preparation meets a challenge.

– Paul Krugman, NY Times, 3/3/06

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'Preparation' is the word that I read and hear over and over when I am gathering information on the spread of avian flu and the coming pandemic. They speak of preparation on the global level, on the federal level, on state and local levels, with businesses, hospitals, utility companies . . . and every once in a while they mention preparation on the individual level. Yet in the United States we barely hear any word at all about avian flu on television or in the newspapers. It is amazing how many people in the U.S. (and I suspect in other countries as well) have no clue about avian flu, its current spread and the coming pandemic. They have long ago stopped reading newspapers and only sporadically listen to the news on radio or television. Perhaps sometimes ignorance is bliss, but now is not one of those times. This is an extremely serious situation, folks, and we need to pay attention to it now. Since our last EarthSave on 2/23 that dealt with avian flu, the following has occurred:

2/23: Bird flu reaches Slovakia
2/24: Avian flu found in former Soviet republic of Georgia
2/27: Two more countries find H5N1; 3 others probe bird deaths;
         China has 2 new human bird flu cases
2/28: Avian flu found in ducks in Sweden, cat in Germany
3/2: China may have more avian flu this spring, leader warns
3/3: WHO sets meeting on flu pandemic containment
3/6: Avian flu infects swans in Poland, cats in Austria
3/8: Avian flu reaches Albania; U.S. to expand testing;
       nine-year-old is China's 10th avian flu victim
3/9: Bird flu found in stone marten (a weasel-like mammal) in Germany —
       the second mammal species to begin contracting H5N1
3/10: 3-year-old Indonesian child dies from H5N1
The avian flu pandemic is not an if, it's a when. H5N1, the avian flu virus, is now spreading rapidly among wild and domestic birds throughout Asia, Africa, Russia, the Baltic States and Europe. With the coming spring migration of wild birds, they are expecting it to spread even more rapidly. According to Michael Leavitt, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, avian flu will soon infect wild and domestic birds in North America. In short, this is not a situation anyone is going to be able to duck (pardon the pun here). Wishful thinking or ignoring it because we think it's too scary isn't going to make it go away. We need to prepare now, but we don't need to panic.

Speaking of panic, let me say something about the word 'pandemic.' 'Pandemic' is a technical word used when a situation 'occurs over a wide geographic area and affects an exceptionally high proportion of the population.' A pandemic is different from an epidemic, another technical word which means 'affecting or tending to affect a disproportionately large number of individuals within a population, community or region at the same time.' In essence, avian flu is going to be a global issue, not a regional one. It is unfortunate that the word 'pandemic' so closely sounds and looks like 'panic' because as soon as people hear 'pandemic' they tend to panic and think the world is coming to an end. This isn't the case at all. Experts are projecting that 30% of the world's population will become infected with H5N1. That means that 70% of the population will not be infected. Those are pretty good odds — if we're smart and we prepare.

Because H5N1 has not mutated to the point where it can transmit human to human, experts do not know how lethal this virus will be to humans. We only know it's amazingly deadly among birds and, of the approximately 176 laboratory-confirmed human cases so far, 97 have died. When this flu moves among humans, it could be either extremely deadly or it could be less lethal. It all depends on how the H5N1 virus mutates. For example, if it 'teams up' with a seasonal flu virus, this teaming will allow it to move human to human but it will probably lessen its impact. This is a big if and no one knows just what H5N1 is going to do. Actually, it doesn't matter if H5N1 kills fewer people than expected or not. It's still going to be something people are not going to want to experience. This is not the typical seasonal flu virus. It hits hard and it hits fast. It hits the respiratory system very hard and causes pneumonia. There is nothing mild about this virus. And over-the-counter flu medications will not be of any help with avian flu.

The researchers who are monitoring how H5N1 is developing state that the virus is changing rapidly, much more quickly than expected. They now have several cases of H5N1 in domestic cats. What is troubling about this development is that cats are mammals (not birds) and this gives H5N1 more opportunity to acclimate to humans who are also mammals. This is just one reason why experts expect it to transmit human to human. But they don't know when this is going to happen. However, they feel strongly that it will be happening sooner rather than later.

No matter how H5N1 develops, we still need to prepare. I've said that scientists are expecting a 30% infection rate. Let's look at the numbers. There are approximately 6.5 billion people in the world, including 298 million in the United States. This means that, at a 30% rate, over 1.9 billion people would become infected world wide and 89.4 million would become infected in the United States. One-third of the people we see around us will most likely become infected. Now I think we can begin to see the seriousness of the situation more clearly.

When I say prepare, I am talking about setting up yourself and your family for a two to three month quarantine. You won't be shopping, you won't be going to work, the kids won't be going to school, you won't be visiting friends and neighbors, you won't be going to the movies . . . This may sound severe, but quarantining is the most effective way to avoid becoming infected. Social interaction and crowds of people are not what you want to seek if you'd like to avoid infection during a pandemic. Quarantine and washing your hands many times throughout the day are the easiest and best ways to go. We do not presently have a vaccine and will not have one until the virus mutates to the point where it travels from human to human. Currently, humans become infected by being in close proximity to infected chickens, turkeys or ducks. Once the human-to-human virus is isolated, it will take another six months to a year for the vaccine to be produced and ready for distribution. By this time, we will have all been exposed to H5N1 at least once. So we need to consider what is required to lessen the incidence of infection and the most effective course is quarantine and hand washing.

A point to consider: If 1.9 billion people around the world become infected with H5N1, including 89.4 million in the U.S. alone, there is going to be a terrible strain, if not downright collapse, of all infrastructure. The infrastructure in the U.S. and around the world is already running at a stretched capacity. Putting an additional stressor on it, such as a flu pandemic, is a real problem. During discussions at several conferences dealing with the pandemic and its projected impact on infrastructure, experts pointed out that organizations have already reduced their workforce over recent years. Imagine what will happen if a pandemic reduces that workforce by another 30%. It's not hard to see how goods and services we currently don't even think about but depend on will collapse during this pandemic.

Another point: This is not 1918 when the Spanish Flu pandemic hit. We are now dealing with an intricately woven global economy. The pandemic won't just affect individuals. It will affect this global-economy structure as well. For example, they are suggesting we stock up on bottled drinking water. This is because there could be a problem getting clean water for two completely different reasons. First, the water production and delivery facilities could be shut down because there are not enough employees healthy enough to run them. Second, there could be a problem treating water because the chlorine that is used in the U.S. treatment plants is imported from Germany and all international shipping may be stopped because of quarantine — or Germany won't have enough employees healthy enough to produce and ship the chlorine.

Are you getting the idea here? This is a serious situation that is going to impact all of us in fundamental and immediate ways. And should H5N1 jump human to human, the pandemic period is projected to last between one and two years. This isn't going to be over in a week. A viral pandemic moves around the world several times in waves. We'll get hit once and need to batten the hatches and quarantine, and in a few months H5N1 will move around the globe again. And it can come around a third and fourth time. Each time it moves around the globe it sets up a 'wave effect' that lasts about two months. Based on other pandemics, scientists say it will take between one and two years for H5N1 to run its course.

So we need to prepare for the first wave now. And then we'll need to prepare again for the second wave and again for the third wave. Preparing for and dealing with a pandemic is not what will create panic and chaos. It's the many people who will refuse to prepare and who will be running around at the last minute trying to find things like drinking water, toilet paper and bread who will create the panic and chaos. They will make that tape we all saw this year of Wal-Mart opening its doors on the morning after Thanksgiving here in the U.S. look like a cake walk. Personally, I'd rather prepare now while all is calm.

As I watch how public health teams and governments around the world respond to H5N1 as it moves into one country after another, I think it's fair to say that we could be faced with three kinds of quarantines at different times within the pandemic period.

First, the quarantines that are being enforced on everyone within a three to five mile radius of newly-discovered birds that have died from H5N1. Currently, as soon as avian flu has been identified as the cause of death either in wild birds or domestic flocks in Asia, Europe and Africa, they are imposing a quarantine for those living within a certain radius of the outbreak. People are not being allowed in or out of the quarantined areas. These quarantines are remaining in place for about three weeks. They are doing this in an effort to contain or slow down the spread of the virus. It also allows them to monitor the health of the people living near the outbreak.

Second, once the virus can move human to human, the people in individual cities, towns and counties that are being hit hard will be told to quarantine by their local government. This will be done to help lessen and control the spread of infection.

Third, we will choose to impose what I'm calling 'smart quarantines' on ourselves. This will happen when we see that the state and local governments around us have not prepared properly, don't know what they are doing and have dropped all leadership responsibilities. (Think Katrina.) If we are prepared, we can take the initiative and impose a smart quarantine on ourselves and our family.

As I've said, the advantage of a quarantine is simple. It removes us from crowds where H5N1 will more likely be moving and infecting people. In a pandemic, large groups of people create a viral petri dish. They provide the virus exactly the conditions needed for quick movement and infection. I am urging you to prepare now so that you will have the option to self-impose a smart quarantine, should that become necessary, and so that you will be prepared for a quarantine that might suddenly be called by your local government. Should the latter occur, you will be required to quarantine whether you are ready or not.

To prepare, think about your life and the basic things you require for living:

  • Stock up on food, and make sure it's food that does not need refrigeration because we may all go through several weeks during each wave without electric power.
  • Think about water, toilets, lights, sanitary napkins, tampons, diapers and trash pickup.
  • Check out camping gear for living without electricity.
  • Talk to your doctor and insurance company to see if they will cover your stocking up a three-month supply of prescription medication. If not, investigate purchasing your medication from Canada. They are willing to help you stock up and you'll get a decent discount on the cost of the medications.
  • Designate a quarantine room in your house or apartment in case someone in your family becomes ill/infected.
  • Have surgical gloves on hand.
  • Make sure you can pay your mortgage or rent for three months because you may not be working during that time.
  • Prepare for your children to be home schooled during quarantines. One of the first places that will close will be schools. Talk to your kids' teachers about avian flu and encourage them to set up a plan for using email and perhaps a special web site for getting lessons to the kids and assisting parents with home schooling.
  • Establish a phone tree among family and friends to check on each other during the quarantine.
  • Exchange emergency contact information with family and friends: http://www.pandemicflu.gov/planguide/ emergencycontacts.html.
  • Stock good books and perhaps a 10,000 piece puzzle of the night sky — something that is sure to keep you and the family occupied for a couple of months.
Oh, and don't forget there may be times when the kids will not be able to watch television and DVDs or play computer games because there won't be power. They are not going to know what to do with themselves. So stock some diversions that do not require electricity. Introduce them to the charm of things to do from that ancient era 30 years ago. And when thinking about the kids, remember that in a quarantine they will not be able to visit their friends and the neighbors. They will be house-bound. So get creative. If set up properly, this could end up being a truly valuable experience where entire families will be forced/encouraged to get to know one another again!

Consider getting a solar charger for keeping your computer up. For one thing, I have found that the up-to-date information about H5N1 is far superior on the internet than on television, radio or in the hard copy versions of newspapers. The Washington Post, MSNBC, WHO, CIDRAP and CDC have good web pages devoted just to the latest developments around avian flu. I check these pages often because they are constantly being updated. Also, we here at Perelandra are doing everything possible to ensure our computers and web site remain up and operating throughout the entire pandemic period. With this, I can communicate information to you at critical times and you will be able to email questions to us, as well as call us on our question line — when the phone service is functioning!

Here are some links to pages specifically covering avian flu information:

Washington Post:
http: // www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/linkset/2005/10/17/ LI2005101700979.html
World Health Organization:
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/index.html
CIDRAP:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/ cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/index.html
CDC:
http://www.cdc.gov/
European CDC:
http://www.ecdc.eu.int/influenza/ update_influenza.php
MSNBC:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4067116/
Seattle Preparedness Site:
http://www.metrokc.gov/health/ pandemicflu/
Flu Wiki Resources:
http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php? n=Resources.Resources
Science and Development Network:
http://www.scidev.net/ms/ bird_flu/index.cfm?pageid=379

And here are links to home products that I found for myself that might be helpful to you. I'm not endorsing these products. I'm simply offering them as a place for you to start your thinking.

Environmental toilet:
http:// www.rei.com/product/5397485.htm?vcat=REI_SSHP_CAMPING_TOC
Solar shower bag:
http:// www.themilitarytrail.com/servlet/the-1226/Reliance-2.5-Gallon-Solar/ Detail
Sanitizer hand wipes:
http://www.safetycentral.com/ pdsaalanalge.html
Sanitizer surface wipes:
http://www.safetycentral.com/ pdsahbgebafu.html
Pet first aid kit:
http://www.safetycentral.com/ petfirstaidkit.html
Solar charger (for laptops, etc.):
http://www.sierrasolar.com/ prod_store/LAP_laptop.html
Solar oven:
http://www.sunoven.com/index.html
A good first aid guide for families:
http:// www.mayoclinic.com/health/FirstAidIndex/FirstAidIndex

If you and the kids are going to be house-bound for a couple of months, you're probably going to want a major supply of ETS Plus on hand! On the more serious side, there aren't enough hospital beds in the world to care for the number of people who are going to become infected with H5N1. Hospitals are going to be stretched beyond anything imaginable. Many hospitals are currently putting together their pandemic response. I know that in Virginia, hospitals will be quarantining one third of all essential personnel when H5N1 begins moving from human to human. They are instituting their quarantine quickly because once the virus can transmit person to person, scientists are estimating that it will only take 36 to 72 hours for the first wave of infection to move throughout the entire world. (You may want to take a shot of ETS Plus and read that last sentence again. This alone could get you moving and preparing now.) By immediately quarantining a third of their essential personnel at home, they will have 'replacement' staff to take over when the first hospital staff goes down with avian flu. Also the state of Virginia has put together reserve medical teams to supplement medical staffing. Along with currently practicing doctors, nurses, EMTs and veterinarians (yes, I said veterinarians) they have also 're-activated' retired nurses, doctors and EMTs to help staff the teams. If you fall into any of these categories, you may wish to contact your state or local medical pandemic planners.

How Perelandra can help. Self-care is the term that is constantly being used by health professionals for this pandemic. In short, medical personnel will be addressing a crisis beyond words and we won't be able to get medical help for most situations. This is why they are urging us to set up for home self-care. Besides stocking up on a first-aid kit, you will have the advantage of having the Perelandra programs and health products at hand. They are all self-help and they are perfect for this very serious time. I suggest you have in-house what is needed for any or all of the following programs you wish to work with: the MBP Solutions that are needed for the pandemic, FSBS+ (see below), ETS Plus for humans and animals, MAP, the Perelandra Essences, the Microbial Balancing Program and the flower essences process included in the Perelandra Papers Pack.

MBP Solutions: The MBP Solutions that we are recommending are the eight that nature has said we will need for this pandemic. They are: Immune, Lymphatic, Cell, Digestive, Endocrine, Nervous, Respiratory and Urinary. If you are currently taking any other MBP Solutions that are not on this list, then add those to the Solutions you need to have on hand. To facilitate ordering, we have put together the eight recommended Solutions along with ETS Plus for humans and FSBS+ (when available) in a kit: the Perelandra Pandemic Preparedness Kit. Each Kit gives one person approximately a three month supply of these essential bottles. I recommend that, if possible, you stock up now with two boxes per person. Once you open the first box at the start of the first wave of the pandemic, order a replacement box (one per person). I'm concerned about a potential breakdown in delivery service and we all may need a few weeks for packages to be delivered once we're in the pandemic. We at Perelandra will be able to get the orders packed and out the door in a timely manner, but the post office and delivery services may not be able to get it through their systems and into your area to you in a timely manner. Having the second box on hand while you wait for the delivery of replacement boxes will ensure that you will not run out of these important bottles.

FSBS+: This is the special Perelandra flu balancing solution that will specifically address just the avian flu. I will be producing it as soon as the virus mutates to the point where it is transmitted human to human and nature gives me the signal to go ahead with production. To help with the coordination of this large undertaking, we are offering FSBS+ for sale as a pre-order. You may purchase just FSBS+ alone or in the Pandemic Preparedness Kit. We are setting everything up now so that we can begin shipping those bottles to you within a week after I begin production. NOTE: For interim H5N1 strengthening and balancing, continue taking the 05-06 Flu Season Balancing Solution. That pattern already has included what we need for preparation for exposure to the current form of the virus. Because of this, I urge you to continue taking your daily dose of the 05-06 Flu Season Balancing Solution through this season that ends in August. If you are not currently taking it, it's not too late to start, especially in light of its H5N1 preparation elements.

ETS Plus for humans and animals: If ever there was a time for ETS Plus, this pandemic is it. First of all, there are all the shocking and stressful things we will be dealing with. Then there are the changes to our life rhythms that will add more stress. And you will be needing ETS Plus for emergencies and accidents during times of quarantine when getting medical help will be difficult. Also, we can't forget our companion animals. ETS Plus for Animals is the first thing you'll need for them in their first aid kit. A note to cat and dog owners: H5N1 has begun to infect cats in Europe, and dogs in the Middle East. If you wish to prepare your companion animals for possible exposure to the virus, you can start them on a once-daily dose of the 2005-2006 Flu Season Balancing Solution. Once FSBS+ is released, switch to giving them that instead (so keep this in mind when placing your pre-orders).

And don't forget to stock up on extra cat litter because you will want to quarantine your cats, as well.

Important H5N1 information for bird owners: Health Watch 13: The H5N1 Virus, Environments and Animals.

MAP, the Perelandra Essences and the Microbial Balancing Program: These are three essential tools that will allow you to address illness and accidents on your own, as well as give you what is needed for remaining healthy throughout the pandemic period. And, as I've been pointing out, in a pandemic you will be very much on your own. The things you will not be able to address with these programs are needed emergency surgery, setting broken bones and receiving needed stitches.

MAP: With MAP you get your own medical team that is on call at any time and right there with you in your home. The MAP teams are well aware of the pandemic situation facing us and are preparing to assist us during this time. Now for a MAP heads up: The MAP teams are currently putting together a special protocol for you to use with them for H5N1 preparation. As soon as the information is available, I will be emailing you a MAP bulletin with the protocol steps. Don't bother trying to do anything special now. It's too soon. Just continue working with your team in the usual manner. I am in daily contact with Lorpuris and he will give me the information when they are ready for you to have it. I'm giving you this heads up now so that you'll know what to expect and also so that you know you are not being ignored by your team.

Perelandra Essences: I recommend that everyone test for essences during the pandemic each day. By testing and taking the needed essences daily, you will not need to test for and make essence solutions. This simplifies the testing process. Using the essences in this manner will help you repair, maintain support and balance throughout your electrical system. That electrical strengthening will help you to cast off illness and keep you healthy during the pandemic. Also it will move you through an illness, should you come down with something. And they may be used to facilitate your MAP sessions. (If you do not know how to use the Perelandra Essences and wish to learn, see the video: The Human Electrical System and Flower Essences.)

I also recommend that you begin daily essence testing now. The stress level surrounding this pandemic and moving through everything that is required to get prepared is pretty intense. Thinking about our life in new ways can be exhilarating, but it is also exhausting and sometimes scary. Personally, I've found that testing essences one time each day is keeping me on a relatively even, peaceful keel and it enables me to make better decisions more easily.

Plan to keep your essence sets well stocked and purchase a good supply of replacement bottles for the essences you use most often. If financially feasible, consider purchasing an additional complete set of Perelandra Essences to keep with your emergency supplies and to use only during emergencies and the pandemic wave periods.

Perelandra Microbial Balancing Program: Gee, microbial balancing during a viral pandemic! If you would like to work with this program, I am recommending that you do a Phase 1 test each day during each pandemic wave. Better yet, do a simple daily Phase 1 test throughout the entire pandemic period—each wave and the time between the waves.

Perelandra Papers Pack: This is a pack of each of the flower essences processes you will need during the pandemic. It includes the Body/Soul Fusion Process, Calibration Process, Nature Healing Conings for Animals, Energy Cleansing Process, Perelandra Essences Telegraph Test Checklist and Post-Death Flower Essences Process. I recommend you store the pack of papers with your stock of Pandemic Preparedness Kits so that you'll have this information on hand in case of an emergency.

My goals for this pandemic are to keep as many people as possible healthy and to provide exceptional tools for those to use who do become sick. I believe that the Perelandra programs and tools I have listed can provide just the medical care and attention that is needed. We may not be able to rely on conventional medical assistance during this crisis, but we have extraordinary self-care options and we certainly won't be abandoned.

Business preparations: If you own or manage a business, not only do you need to address personal reparations, you will also need to put into place whatever is needed to keep your business operating during the pandemic. There is a good CIDRAP report, 'Businesses zero in on details of pandemic flu planning': http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/biz- plan/news/feb1606breakouts.html) that gives business guidelines for what to consider. Also, there is an excellent business checklist available: http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/businesschecklist.html.

I am currently moving Perelandra through the business preparations that apply to us and I can tell you it's both interesting and challenging. But these preparations also give Perelandra and the staff security. And it ensures that we will maintain operations and be here for you throughout the entire pandemic period. We have set up for a third of our staff to quarantine at home and telecommute. Another third will be quarantined at Perelandra and hold down the production and mailroom departments. The final third will be quarantined at home and be our backup.

It is widely accepted that the United States is the least prepared country in the world for this pandemic. If you do not own or operate a business, it is a safe bet that your employers know next to nothing about avian flu and what it can do to the business. I suggest you talk to them about it and encourage them to educate themselves and begin a preparation program as soon as possible. If you can do your job from home, set up with your boss for telecommuting.

Your bosses will need to think about things such as the following:

  • Plans for ensuring worker availability and productivity. This would include making the investment to support working from home or other remote sites and developing worker training programs emphasizing cross-training, replacement training and recalling and training retirees.
  • Reconsider the consequences of the current 'just-in-time' model for obtaining materials, supplies and goods.
  • Develop systematic and proactive procedures to shut down and restart operations. This would include assessing cash reserves and developing time periods for shutting down. Additionally, managing client expectations in advance for maintaining operations.

Preparing a business for the pandemic is not something that can be slapped together in a panic at the last minute. So I urge you to do your boss, co-workers and yourself a big favor and get this ball rolling at work.

Educating others: Just about every Monday members of my staff tell me that they talked to people about avian flu over the weekend and were shocked to find out how little these people knew. For many, it's a completely new revelation. They may have heard something about birds dying somewhere, but they had no idea what avian flu was leading to and how they were going to be affected. Once my staff sat down with them and explained the situation, these people understood and said they would be preparing right away. The bottom line is, people really don't know what is happening. Or they don't want to know. I urge you to talk to as many people as possible. Stay calm, don't overestimate the situation, give them a copy of this update to read and stress the need to prepare. Also have a bottle of ETS Plus handy in case the people need a couple of doses to recover from the shock of what you're telling them. You may annoy them initially by giving them the information, but don't let this stop you. If they 'glaze over' or blow you off the first time you talk to them, don't give up. Wait a few days and try again. It's too important for you to step back should they resist you. And don't be afraid to scare them. It is appropriate to experience fear about avian flu and it is precisely this fear that many will need to feel in order for them to get off their butts and prepare. I'm talking about fear here and not panic. Peter M. Sandman, PhD, a risk communication expert, says that fear is what motivates people to take sensible precautions in the face of a real threat. H5N1 is a real threat. Remember, each person you talk to and convince it's now time to prepare will be one less person storming through the doors of WalMart at the last minute in the chaotic search for the last loaf of bread on the shelves.

Now, if you didn't finish reading the EarthSave email that linked you to this update, please go back and read it. It has important ordering information that I did not include in the update.


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Disclaimer
Every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this paper
is complete and accurate. However, neither the publisher nor the author are engaged
in rendering professional advice or services to the individual reader. The ideas,
procedures and suggestions contained in this paper are not intended as a substitute
for consulting with your physician. All matters regarding your health require medical
supervision. Neither the author nor the publisher shall be liable or responsible for
any loss, injury or damage allegedly arising from any information or suggestion in this
paper. The opinions expressed in this paper represent the personal views of the author.


 
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