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OK folks, here's a good Friday update that I think you are going to want to see. I hope this helps you to breathe a little easier. But before you back away from this pandemic completely, remember that viruses can change their course on a dime and in an instant. The Swine Flu virus is completely in control of this situation and can do whatever it pleases at any time. The information below is based on what the virus is doing right now. With a little luck, this current level of activity is where it will stay.

Still plan to take FSBS Plus twice daily. And for those of you who are also taking the MBP Balancing Solutions that are included in your Pandemic Kits, continue to take these as directed, as well.

What scientists know about swine flu
Emma Wilkinson, BBC News
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8028371.stm

Preliminary analysis of the swine flu virus suggests it is a fairly mild strain, scientists say.
It is believed that a further mutation would be needed in order for the H1N1 virus to cause the mass deaths that have been estimated by some.
But at this point, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy how the virus will continue to evolve.

Health Care Friday
by DemFromCT - dailykos.com
Fri May 01, 2009 at 06:20:03 AM PDT

• Commonly asked question: Why close schools aggressively? We don't for seasonal flu.

        When you have a novel virus that everyone can catch, you treat it differently than seasonal flu, which many people have at least partial immunity to. Typically, schools close at ~10% to ~20% sick. But if you want to stop community spread you have to close the schools at 1% sick or you lose the effect. So with a virus you want to stop, you are proactive rather than reactive. More here about legal aspects.

        Schools play a critical role in protecting the health of their students, staff, and the community from highly contagious, infectious diseases such as seasonal or pandemic influenza. Modeling and analyses conducted by CDC and others indicate, for example, that community-wide school closures may mitigate the incidence of pandemic influenza, thereby reducing its impact on individuals, groups, healthcare providers, public health systems, and the economy. The public health premise is that closing schools limits the spread of influenza (or other communicable conditions) consistent with social distancing theories.

        This brief article (http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/13/2/344.htm) notes that policy is different from state to state. Does it work? Models say yes, it should.

• Good summary: http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/SwineFlu/14004)

        Aside from testing procedures, assessment and management of 2009 H1N1 (swine) flu should largely mimic that for seasonal flu, the CDC says.

For now. And remember, like seasonal flu, cases can grow in a hurry. http://apnews.excite.com/article/20090430/D97T2AM00.html

        A hundred cases of swine flu in the U.S.? Health officials say there are likely more. Just how many is not important, they say. As the world faces a potential pandemic, swamped labs are not testing all possible cases. Getting an exact tally has taken a back seat to finding new outbreak hot spots or ways to limits its spread, health officials said.
        "The specimens are coming in faster than they can possibly be tested," said Dr. Jeffrey P. Davis, state epidemiologist in Wisconsin, where a lab helped spot the nation's first known case, in a 10-year-old boy from San Diego.

        But you knew that.

• We'll have a pandemic, but not just yet. http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/04/flu-preparation.html

        More countries will get to stick their fingers in this pie because the virus is spreading rapidly. Lab-confirmed cases are up to 236 from 148 yesterday; and three more European countries have joined the list: the Netherlands, France (with a probable case), and Switzerland. Peru and Costa Rica are now flu zones, too. Even a member of President Barack Obama's security team is suspected of catching swine flu during a recent visit to Mexico with the president. Because of this spread, Angus Nicoll, head of ECDC's influenza program, said today that it's "inevitable" that WHO will raise the alert level from pandemic phase 5 to 6, and "it's just a question of when that will happen." But WHO said the situation hasn't changed yet: "There is nothing that epidemiologically suggests today that we should be moving towards phase 6," said Keiji Fukuda, WHO's assistant director-general for health security and environment, in a briefing.

(For Friday's full dailykos.com article: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/4/30/726515/-Health-Care-Friday )

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