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Once again I am forwarding two excellent articles that sum up where we are right now with the Swine Flu, what's happening around you and why. (The links are at the end of this Health Watch.) And again the articles are from dailykos.com. They are doing a terrific job explaining what's going on. In short, I couldn't say all this better myself. But first, my update and a few thoughts from me:

We may be lucky with this current H1N1 flu — but then again, we may not be. It's way too early to tell. You've always got to keep in mind that the best scientists in the world cannot predict what a virus is going to do — especially a new virus. Flu viruses mutate and re-sort VERY quickly. They can change on the proverbial dime. They can go up, down, left, right, forward, back, and sideways. They can even look like they've disappeared, only to mutate again and reappear with a vengeance. The scientists at WHO and CDC and other public health officials who are following H1N1 are doing just that: They are following it. They are not leading it, accurately predicting it or enticing it into a preferred direction. They are following the trail. And in some cases, it's got to feel like they are trying to follow the trail of a million drunken frat boys. They can speculate on what this virus will do based on what pandemic viruses have done in the past. And they can speculate on what might be in store for us based on what this virus is doing now — unless it changes direction and mutates and puts on a weird wig and glasses and staggers off in a totally unexpected direction. This is why you are hearing so many caveats when the scientists give us the latest information. When they give the caveats, they are not showing that they are incompetent or unknowledgeable. To the contrary, they are trying to teach us civilians about the true reality of viruses in general and new virus strains in particular.

As I said, we may be lucky with H1N1. It may go down in history as a "mild pandemic." But this virus isn't finished with its journey yet, either geographically or in mutated form. One of the things they (WHO, CDC, and other experts) are concerned about is what the virus will do with the coming hot weather in the northern hemisphere. Generally, these viruses go to the southern hemisphere to enjoy their winter and get in a little skiing while we swelter. The concern is around how this virus will mutate while in a different environment, including interfacing with different animals. And if it should come back north (which these viruses tend to do) what will it look like for us? Will it be passed around as easily? Will it be more virulent? Will it be a different virus? Pandemics come in waves. The Spanish Flu back in 1918 that killed over 50 million people had a relatively mild first wave. It was that second wave that started in the fall that did most of the damage. So far H1N1 is not shaping up to be as virulent as Spanish Flu. But we could still experience a second wave of H1N1. And this is something the experts are concerned about and can't predict. Even if we come out of the current "wavelet" relatively unscathed, we're not out of the woods until we see what happens in the fall.

Why am I telling you stuff that could scare the pants off you? If H1N1 ends up being truly mild and barely an issue to our health, it has still served a tremendous purpose. It has put everyone in the Americas through the paces of what it will be like to address another, more virulent, new virus. For over three years, when Bird Flu (H5N1) started taking off in Asia and spreading, experts and public health officials around the world have been busy planning for how to address the health, social and economic issues that a pandemic would cause. They have been quietly putting plans into place and going through community drills to make sure the plans can work. For us in the Americas, the first phase of those plans got kicked into action with H1N1. For us in the U.S., many public areas and transportation facilities have been put on alert and schools are closing at the first sign of outbreak. But most civilians in the Americas have resisted thinking about a pandemic, how it would impact their lives and putting together contingency plans. Out of sight, out of mind.

Having followed H5N1 closely for over three years now, having watched the public pandemic planning form, and having put into place my own personal and business crisis plan so that Perelandra as a business can operate, I can honestly say that the public health officials are responding to the current Swine Flu outbreak very well. Actually, I'm amazed at how smoothly this is going. And it means that everyone is getting a look at what will be happening and what is expected of us. Our lives will be altered quickly. Period. And here's a little shout out I'd like to give: What the Mexican government and the Mexican people have pulled off in an effort to keep this virus from exploding further and causing even more of a problem for all of us is nothing short of amazing. They have totally shut down Mexico City, over 20 million people at the cost of about $54 million per day in lost revenue, in order to impose social distancing and give that virus a chance to "settle down" from its peak activity. Everything is closed. And it is working . . . so far. It is a bold and responsible action. If it continues to work, you can be sure that this bold action will be repeated should other cities or towns start passing around the virus. (We're getting a taste of that with the sudden closing of schools.) Officials won't even hesitate to just lock down an entire city and force the people to socially distance. This bold approach is what worked in 1918 and it looks like its still working.

So I am urging you to look at what is happening. It's a taste of what will be happening should this virus go pandemic or become more virulent and should another new, more virulent virus crop up in the future. We all have a choice about how we are going to personally deal with the health, social and economic upheaval this will cause in each of our lives. So now is the time to think. If H1N1 remains mild, we can thank it for giving us a small dress rehearsal and a chance to prepare. Now is the time to think about each of these potential upheavals in your life and consider options you can take to soften the blow. I think it's fair to say that the one thing I can predict in all this and the one thing I can promise should a pandemic hit is the health, social and economic upheaval.

We have choices for how we will personally deal with these things. We can sit around bitching and moaning about how unfair life is and how dare the government upset my day and tell me I can't go to work or that my children can't go to school. We can get angry, uppity and try to defy the restrictions that will be put into place. Or we can consider options and prepare for the potential challenges. Like storing extra food, extra water, extra medication, extra games and books . . . What would you do should you lose electricity? You don't know? Well, turn your electricity off for a day. That'll give you a good idea of the areas where you will need to come up with alternatives. No electricity means no computer, no tv, no fancy stereo, no heat, no a/c, no lights, no hot water . . . There are easy ways to deal with these inconveniences. For example, visit a store that sells camping equipment. They have all kinds of neat options and ideas. And some are even inexpensive! Think about any medication you are on and get an extra 1-3 month supply. Prescriptions will be hard to get in a pandemic. Then there is that food issue. And what will you do if your kids' school has closed for two weeks and you can still go to work. As painful as thinking about this scenario may be, you really must come up with options. Is there a family member or neighbor who isn't working who can look after the kids while you're at work? Will your employer allow you to take the two weeks off to care for your kids? Will you be able to make up the time lost after the two weeks so that you won't take such a financial hit? If not, what are your options for getting through this financially? Panicking, running around in a circle and screaming, "I CAN NOT ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN TO ME." is not a good or helpful plan. Wait . . . Does your employer even have a pandemic plan? Most employers are also refusing to think about a pandemic. How do they plan to keep operating with a potential loss of 25% to 30% of their staff and a major drop in orders or activity? Will they allow telecommuting? Have they even thought about any of this? If they have, ask them what the plan is. If they haven't, demand that they get a plan into place. (Warning: Since you now may know more about this preparation thing than they do, you may have to offer to help them. The CDC has excellent checklists for business pandemic preparation.)

It's all scary and annoying stuff to think about — and time consuming and tiring. But how H1N1 is quickly shaping up and how the local and federal governments are responding is showing us all that we have no choice but to think about these things. And the time is now while we still have time. This current mild wave of H1N1 is giving us a window of opportunity. Well, actually we do have a choice: We can make the restrictions and impact easier on ourselves by taking personal responsibility, considering options and putting our own personal plan into place now or we can continue avoiding thinking about these things and become a victim to the restrictions later. In short, we can choose to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. (Get it? Swine flu / sow's ear?!! . . . sorry.)


Here are the links to the two dailykos.com articles that I feel will help you understand what's going on and why. Please take the time to read them. Please. They aren't long. The first article has some neat graphs/charts. Just click on each chart to enlarge it. The second article is an excellent explanation of how a flu virus acts and develops. It's the best explanation I've run across on this (it's rare to find information about viruses written with a touch of humor) and will give you information you'll be able to use as you listen to the updates being released by WHO and the CDC. It also has a beautiful YouTube at the end that I think will give you a little smile and a touch of peace.

H1N1: Why Do Schools Close, and When Do They Open?
by DemFromCT, dailykos.com
Sun May 03, 2009 at 08:02:03 AM PDT
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/5/2/727192/-H1N1:-Why-Do-Schools-Close,-And-When-Do-They-Open

Pandemic Lotto
by DarkSyde, dailykos.com
Sun May 03, 2009 at 05:48:54 AM PDT
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/5/3/724901/-Pandemic-Lotto

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